Myth of Sports Betting: “Big” Payouts

„Big“ Payouts

The typical means to bet the NFL is to wager one game at a time and give 11-to-10 chances (risking, for example, $55 to win $50 or $110 to win $100). Usually the wager is on one group against the point spread, or the over-under about the entire score of a game. However, bookies also offer other types of bets. What makes these bets alluring is they seem to pay more. But in fact, these exotic stakes usually cost you.

Parlays and Parlay Cards: Parlays are usually bet in two- or three-game groups. On a two-game parlay, a bettor becomes 13-to-5 chances if he wins both games. For a small investment, the payoff seems big: about a $50 bet, a payoff of $130. On a straight bet, by contrast, a bettor should gamble $143 ($130 plus the $13 vig) to win $130. And when he is going to wager two games at $50 each, he has to risk $110 to win only $100. Why don’t you bet parlays?

The dilemma is that the odds of winning two of two stakes is 3-to-1 against. That means the fair payout chances should likewise be 3-to-1 (or even 15-to-5). However they aren’t. Rather, they’re just 13-to-5.

A three-team parlay generally pays off at odds of 6-to-1. Here a $50 bettor receives $300 on a $50 investment. Sounds fantastic, does not it?

However, the odds of cashing that three-team parlay ticket are just 1 at 8.

Another sort of parlay is the parlay card, or“sheet“ But, the payoff odds are even worse–often only 5-to-1 for choosing three matches. That gives the house an advantage of 25 percent. Four-teamers usually pay 10-to-1, which gives the house a 31.25 percent edge. A ten-teamer might pay 500-to-1, which sounds good until you understand that the chances against going 10 for 10 are 1,023-to-1, which provides the home over 50 percent edge on such proposal.

Teaser Bets: Each year the number of bettors who wager on teasers grows. Why? The games they recall losing by“a point or two“

The most typical sort of teaser wager is that the two-team teaser where a bettor has six points on all 2 games. The cost of these extra points is giving 6-to-5 (or 12-to-10) odds on the bet. In all teasers, all games have to win for the bettor to get paid. Also, in the majority of teasers, if any match ends in a tie, the teaser is considered no wager. (On a ten-point teaser, a tie leaves the teaser a reduction.)

In any given season, a game has a bit over a two-thirds chance of falling over 5 points of this final line (the rate was 68.8 percent for 1990–1999). These games will be wins six-point individual-game teaser bets irrespective of the side you gamble. But you must win two games to acquire a six-point teaser.

By squaring the 68.8 percent win rate for 1990–1999, we discover that you’d have won just over 47% of six-point two-game teasers. Nevertheless, putting 6-to-5 odds means you must win 54.545 percent of two-team teasers just to break even. That means the home had a border of over 12 percent.

On the other teaser bets, the picture is just as bleak.

The best bet at the NFL is betting the point spread or over/under on individual games. Giving 11-to-10 chances is normally the least expensive price you may give.

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