After a Week 4 full of upsets, Week 5 showcased yet the following seven underdogs covering the six and spread winning outright. With value appearing in spreads, game totals, and money-lines, Week 6 provides a opportunity to make the most of markets.
A battle between two struggling teams come home to confront the Atlanta Falcons. While Arizona notched their first win over Cincinnati, the Falcons fell 53-32 to the Houston Texans. Together with the line opening at -2.5 in favour of the Falcons, now 81% of wagers back Atlanta so much better.
Looking at Atlantas crime, the Falcons stay a one-dimensional crime. Currently, the team ranks 28th in rushing yards per game (67.6), but third in passing yards per game (313.2). Even though this could pose an issue in most matchups, Arizona permits the sixth-most passing yards into conflicting signal natives (1,420). Arizona has enabled this season to attain at least 23 full points to every opponent.
Arizona remains limited by injuries with their wide receivers and online. Kyler Murray has taken this season to 21 sacks, which ranks third in the NFL. Atlanta fights to generate pressure, with just 1.2 sacks per game. They remain above average in QB Hurries and Hits, suggesting some regression that is positive .
NFL chances point to the Falcons.
Sunday October 13th, 2019 in LA Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles, California)
Line: Over 49
After launching at 48.5-points, the over/under in the 49ers-Rams match has already jumped a half point. The two San Francisco and Los Angeles rank in the top five in total yards recorded per match, setting up for fireworks.
San Franciscos offense picked up where it left off coming out of the Week 4 bye. So far, the 49ers direct the NFL with 200 rushing yards per game. They also rank fifth in total offense, with 427.2 total yards per contest. The Rams position middle-of-the-pack in defensive metrics, however, allowed at least 96 rushing yards to Chris Carson, Nick Chubb, and Christian McCaffrey this season.
On the opposite side, the Rams check in with 413.6 total yards of offense per game. Jared Goff currently ranks third using 1,649 passing yards this season, also San Francisco appears slightly more vulnerable to this pass. They enabled Andy Dalton to notch 311 passing yards in Week 2 while the 49ers put the clamps on Mason Rudolph and Baker Mayfield within their past two matches.
With both humming, this total looks likely to eclipse 50-points by game time. NFL odds point to the over at 49-points as a bet that is strong.
Sunday October 13th, 2019 at Aarowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
Line: Houston +5
Starting at -8.5-points, the line has dropped to Chiefs -5.5-points, even despite Kansas City carrying 60 percent of their public wagers. At the moment, it seems some sharp money may have backed Houston. With a ton of injuries in the Kansas City facet, Houston resembles a sharp week drama .
Both crimes are surging of late, yet Houston room should be afforded by this matchup. Kansas City ranks in rushing yards allowed 9, third-worst. This occurred before dropping stud defensive tackle into a groin injury. Houston now ranks 10th in rushing yards per game (129.4), with Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson providing a two-headed assault.
In terms of the Chiefs crime, accidents continue to pile up here as well. Even though Patrick Mahomes gutted out a foot injury, Sammy Watkins, Eric Fisher, and Andrew Wylie completed Week 5 on the seat. This caused Mahomes to consume 11 hits, while confronting 13 quarterback hurries. Together with Tyreek Hill already questionable for Week 6, the Chiefs seem thin on offense.
Battling with injuries and matchup problems alike, Kansas City resembles a fade to our NFL Picks. Gambling tendencies and line movement point to Houston as a drama as an underdog.
Best Bet: Falcons -1.5 at Bovada
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